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Managing Investment Risk

President Retirement Wealth Advisorsby Jason Wenk

Often times when the stock market zooms investors get complacent.  Money managers too.

What seems to happen is we forget very quickly how painful it is to have markets fall and our accounts drop in value and we instead get filled with euphoria about market rallies.  In fact, if we don’t see our money going up as fast as the market we often are disappointed even though we may be experiencing nice gains.

This is a problem, and I’ve got some statistics for our readers to chew on next time they find themselves falling for this investor trap.

The trap is thinking market gains is more important than protecting from market losses. To be sure, protecting from market losses is far, far more important than catching 100% of every market rally.  Here’s the proof:

S&P 500 - 25 Years Ending 12/31/2009 - Average Annual Return 7.93%

Miss the BestMiss the WorstMiss Both the Best and Worst
10 Days4.83%12.14%8.92%
20 Days2.79%14.74%9.28%
30 Days1.12%16.93%9.56%
40 Days(0.46%)18.86%9.67%

Source: Hepburn Capital Management 2009 study

As you can see, avoiding the worst days not only helps produce the best returns, it’s also a lot easier on the stomach – even if you make nothing on the markets best days.  And if you miss both the best days and the worst days: you still perform better overall than the market and do so with much less risk.

Based on these facts one could surmise that managing investment risk is the most important thing for both money managers and investors to focus on.

So next time you see yourself lagging the market in a rally, keep in mind that missing the big gains is really not nearly as important as having a strategy designed to miss the worst times too.

Note: This is a hypothetical example and there’s never been an investment strategy that missed just the best and worst days of the market. This study also doesn’t take into account management or trading fees that might be incurred in implementing such a strategy. Nor can you invest directly in the S&P 500 index.

Economic and Market Summary for April 2010

Len Rhoades, Financial Advisor, Grand RapidsBy Leonard Rhoades

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke summed up the US Economy well by making this profound statement, “We’re not out of the wood yet!” A recap of March 2010 economic news would support that statement as the economy has shed over 8.2 Million Jobs since the start of the recession. However, with that said, revisions for January and February report showed upwards of an additional 62,000 jobs created. By far the best news came in March 2010 with the non-farm payrolls report showing an additional 162,000 jobs created. Everyone with a brain understands the need for jobs for without workers generating production and purchasing goods how sustainable can any recovery really be. Evidence by the stock market advances it appears Wall Street anticipates job creation being further stimulated sometime this year.

A continued bright spot for the US Economy seems to be indicators that continue to show positive strength such as the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing. Some would argue that these two indicators should be monitored closely for any potential future economic strength or weakness. The ISM Manufacturing Index is released by the Institute of Supply Management which tracks the amount of manufacturing the prior month. The most recent reading was the strongest since 2004.

The big news no doubt came from Washington as Health Care reform passed making history. How this will translate to the economy know one at this point really knows. Providing health care for some 32 Million Americans currently going without has to be considered a huge relief. However, without question many pundits would argue the potential tax consequences could offset Health Care reform benefits. Considering the current federal deficit of over 1.4 trillion the argument of adding further burden could cripple the economic recovery…keep in mind much of the health care reform benefits do not take affect for several years.

Our own proprietary signal for the economy provided a normal reading for the month of April 2010 = 47.78

Recession Probability Analytics is a quantitative, completely mechanical and emotion free way of looking at the strength of the US Economy. When the reading is high, it warns of coming slow – downs and serves as a warning sign to investors. While its use is flexible, it is generally a good idea to use caution when investing in higher risk US assets, such as stocks and high yield bonds when the reading is in red. When the indicator reads “above 50″ we feel there is a high probability the US Economy will worsen in the following month, and therefore, stocks should be invested in with caution. Generally, when this occurs, we reduce stock exposure by 50% on our investment strategies. When the indicator reads “below 45″ we feel there is a high probability the US Economy is within its normal range and therefore should be able to sustain growth.

  • Recession Probability Analytics Factors
  • Case-Schiller Home Price Index
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Chain Store Sales
  • TED Spread (difference between 3 mth. Labor and t-bill)
  • Fed Funds Futures
  • Core Capital Goods Orders
  • Survey Of Business Confidence
  • Consumer Comfort Index

Smarter Financial Planning for March 2010

Financial advisor 401k

Jason Crump, Grand Rapids Financial Advisor

By Jason Crump

Tax time is here so now is the time to ask yourself, have you or can you make IRA contributions for 2009? IRA contributions are one of the easiest ways to reduce ones taxable income (as long as you qualify). Here are a few of the rules and limits to think about while preparing your taxes.

You still have time to reduce your taxable income and boost your retirement savings. The IRS gives tax payers until April 15 of the following year to contribute for the previous year’s earnings (for example; 2009 IRA contributions can be made up until April 15, 2010). The contributions can be made into a Traditional IRA or a Roth IRA.

The IRA limits for tax year 2009 are as follows:

Maximum Contribution Limits (If under age 50) $5,000.00

Maximum Contribution Limits (If over age 50) $6,000.00

As we mention the above limits we have to remind you that there are employment and income restrictions that come along with IRA contributions (we would recommend talking with your advisors or accountant to determine qualifications based on employment and income).

Now that we have reminded you about 2009 IRA contributions we wanted to update our readers and let them know there are some changes with regards to Roth IRA conversions and the 2010 tax year. This year the government is allowing any individual (regardless of income) to convert their Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Before this year income limitations were imposed on Roth conversions for those tax payers whose incomes were over $100,000. However, the recent tax law changes allow anyone to convert their Traditional IRA’s to a Roth IRA. One thing to keep in mind is that this is still considered a taxable distribution; hence one has to pay taxes on the pre-tax contributions and earnings that are converted to the Roth IRA.

The other major change will help tax payers lessen the tax burden on their converted IRA money. The new law states tax payers that convert money from their Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA can realize half of the tax in 2011 and the other half in 2012, thus spreading out your tax burden over a couple of years instead of all at once (which may cause other income to be taxed at a higher rate than usual). Again, we would recommend talking with your tax professional or advisor to help determine if the 2010 changes would benefit your individual situation.

Many people question whether contributing to an IRA is beneficial or not. According to Fidelity over half of Americans are currently not taking advantage of the benefits of IRA’s. The IRA may not be the sole vehicle that allows us to retire, but it will enhance our current level of retirement savings and allow retirees to live a more comfortable lifestyle during their retirement years (employer sponsored retirement plans may not be enough to provide the lifestyle individuals have grown accustomed to during their working years).

What we are trying to inform you of is that saving for retirement is important. In the past Americans have relied on Pension Plans and Social Security for their retirement income; not any more. Pensions have basically gone away and Social Security is changing and will change even more within the coming years. We should rely upon ourselves to establish good saving habits and take full advantage of what the government is willing to give us in the form of tax benefits in regards to investing.

FACTOID for the week: According to AP (Associated Press) and the Employee Benefit Research Institute the percentage of workers that have saved for retirement is down to 69% in 2010, a drop from 75% in 2009. Of the 69% that stated they have saved for retirement more than 25% of them have less than $1,000 in total retirement savings. This is a scary realization that we have to be aware of.

Political and Business Reflections for March 2010

Financial Advisor Grand RapidsBy Joel Van Woerkom

Michigan Ranked #3 in the Country for New Corporate Development

How can a state that has ranked in the bottom of the nation’s employment rate the last couple years finish #3 in the country for new corporate development the last two years, according to Site Selection magazine?

The state of Michigan has been hard at work trying to attract new businesses to the area and shifting from the automotive industry into other areas of business. While it would be easy to take a negative stance regarding the state of Michigan’s economy, I believe we should take a look at the positive side. New businesses and corporations are building in Michigan, while it may take a while to completely turn around the economy and get unemployment levels back to where they were. Steps are being taken in the right direction.

New corporate projects for Michigan include energy storage and solar firms like the Wixom Renewable Energy Center; advanced battery development and manufacturing firms like LG Chem, who is building a new $303 million plant in Holland to compete with Johnson Controls Saft Advanced Power Solutions; and electric and hybrid vehicle production by GM and Ford; and then there is talk of wind farms on the shores of Lake Michigan.

New businesses, new buildings, and new technology are starting to show up in the area. Michigan is trying to make things easier for businesses to come in by offering tax breaks and renaissance zones, but what do you think? Is Michigan moving in the right direction? What further steps need to be taken?

Economic and Market Summary for March 2010

Len Rhoades, Financial Advisor, Grand RapidsBy Leonard Rhoades

Economic conditions have continued to improve modestly thus far in 2010.  Many economists, government officials and strategists continue to believe their remedies for the crisis of 2008/2009 have assured us of a continued recovery…with an expectation of growth in the neighborhood of 3.5% – 4%.

The backbone of the US economy and the conviction behind many of the oracles mentioned above, consumer spending rose 0.5% in January.  Without the consumer and/or the US government stimulus many wonder just how the economy will be able to sustain itself.  Within the January spending report showed that personal income increased by only 0.1%, lending itself to a slow – down in the savings rate.  These among other reports continue to show the consumer is having a difficult time and is tapped out, millions unemployed with no piggy bank in their homes equity.  With so many jobs lost that revolved around housing the question remains if enough is being created elsewhere to offset the defiency?

One bright spot in recent months has been the strength of manufacturing. The first quarter will likely see less robust growth than the latter half of 2009, but currently, risks are to the upside for the factory segment. As goods production settles into a more sustainable growth path after bouncing back from the recent recession, slower manufacturing expansion is not a concern, but rather a sign of longer-run health.

The big news from the Fed in February was its decision to raise the discount rate. While the timing was somewhat unexpected, the move is in line with the central bank’s recent efforts to remove some of its extraordinary measures to backstop the economy as it eroded rapidly in 2008. The change to the discount rate does alter the view of many economists that the Fed will hold the fed funds target at its current low level into 2011. This change was more in line with recent closures of several lending facilities created to give struggling banks access to liquidity. Low interest rates will be necessary for the near term to encourage a self-sustaining recovery, but the Fed also wants banks to stand on their own instead of relying on government for funding.

Our own proprietary signal for the economy provided a normal reading for the month of March 2010 = 44.7

Recession Probability Analytics is a quantitative, completely mechanical and emotion free way of looking at the strength of the US Economy.  When the reading is high, it warns of coming slow – downs and serves as a warning sign to investors.  While its use is flexible, it is generally a good idea to use caution when investing in higher risk US assets, such as stocks and high yield bonds when the reading is in red.  When the indicator reads “above 50″ we feel there is a high probability the US Economy will worsen in the following month, and therefore, stocks should be invested in with caution.  Generally, when this occurs, we reduce stock exposure by 50% on our investment strategies.  When the indicator reads “below 45″ we feel there is a high probability the US Economy is within its normal range and therefore should be able to sustain growth.

• Recession Probability Analytics Factors
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Chain Store Sales
• TED Spread (difference between 3 mth. Labor and t-bill)
• Fed Funds Futures
• Core Capital Goods Orders
• Survey Of Business Confidence
• Consumer Comfort Index

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